THE IRKUTSK REGION BUSINESSES FUTURE NEEDS AND VOCATIONAL INSTITUTIONS GRADUATES SHARE IN THE HUMAN RESOURCE INFLOW

Abstract

The article describes the methodology and the results of the forests made to determine the future Irkutsk regional economy HR needs (within the period that ends before 2020). The human resources are divided into groups depending on the level of the training they get (basic, vocational school, higher education institution). The forecast is made concerning the total number of graduates. The number is subdivided into groups that show the required number of vocational school and university graduates and the groups of interrelated specializations that are in demand. There are two types of forecasts: a strategic one and an inertial development-based one. The authors describe the approaches that can be used to make HR future needs forecasts, the work stages and the mathematical methods used. The article includes some forecast results that relate to the needs in the personnel with various level of training.