Digital Transformation of the Regions of the Central Federal District: Dynamics, Clusters and Economic Effects (2018–2025)

The article is devoted to a comprehensive analysis of the digital maturity of 18 constituent entities of the Central Federal District based on the integral rating "Digital Maturity of Russian Regions" (April 2025). Unlike existing studies that either limit themselves to describing sectoral indicators or do not verify composite indices with objective statistical data, the authors, for the first time for the CFD, apply a nine-component index structure (digital infrastructure, e-government services, smart city, healthcare, education, artificial intelligence projects, open data, economy and innovation, communications) and conduct empirical verification using Rosstat indicators (patent activity, innovation activity, share of organizations with broadband access) and the CNews Analytics ICT budgets rating. The distribution of regions by digital maturity level is analyzed, revealing a persistent polarization: the gap between the leader (Moscow, 95 points) and the laggards (Tambov and Tver oblasts, 36 points) is 59 points, which is 2.6 times. Using k-means clustering based on the nine components, four typological groups are identified: leaders (cluster A), innovation-active (cluster B), catching-up (cluster C), and lagging (cluster D). Spearman's correlation coefficient between the digital maturity index and GRP per capita was 0.89 (p < 0.001), and with net migration – 0.71 (p = 0.001). Regression analysis (OLS, R2 = 0.86) showed that a one-point increase in the index is associated with a 3.56% increase in GRP per capita, controlling for investment and population size. Comparison with the Digital Russia index (SKOLKOVO, 2018) revealed high rank stability (ρ = 0.85), indicating the persistence of structural digital inequality over seven years. The article has practical significance, as the proposed regional policy measures (differentiated by cluster) can be directly used by public authorities in developing and adjusting digital transformation programs for the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, as well as in the allocation of intergovernmental transfers.

1. Vologin, A. E. (2023). Characteristics of the Digital Transformation Process: New Opportunities and Challenges Generated by Digital Transformation. Teoriya i praktika servisa: ekonomika, sotsial'naya sfera, tekhnologii, 1, 17–20. https://elibrary.ru/dvbmfj

2. Vyakina, I. V., & Anisimova, E. S. (2022). Prospects and Risks of Russian Regions' Digital Transformation in the Scope of Security of Spatial Development. National Interests: Priorities and Security, 18(8), 1496–1511. https://doi.org/10.24891/ni.18.8.1496

3. Korolev, A., & Krivosheya, E. (2018). Indeks «Tsifrovaya Rossiya»: otrazhenie tsifrovizatsii sub'ektov RF cherez prizmu otkrytykh istochnikov [The Digital Russia Index: A reflection of the digitalization of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation through the prism of open sources]. Moscow School of Management "Skolkovo" Publ.

4. Kotovenko, D. N., & Veldyaev, A. P. (2025). Digital Transformation of Strategic Planning of Regions: The Role of Decentralized Solutions in Strengthening Competitive Advantages. Discussion, 6, 123–130. https://doi.org/10.46320/2077-7639-2025-6-139-123-130

5. Krutikov, V. K., Merkulova, E. V., & Fedin, S. M. (2021). Digital Economy Technologies as New Points of Growth Providing Innovative Transformation of the Regional Service Sphere. Financial Economy, 4, 53–56. https://elibrary.ru/xteyhy

6. Rachkovskiy, I. B., & Yakovlev, A. R. (2025). Assessing the Effectiveness of Digital Transformation. Understanding Digital Transformation. Ekonomika i upravlenie: problemy, resheniya, 1(8), 214–225. https://doi.org/10.36871/ek.up.p.r.2025.08.01.022

7. Rosstat (2025). Regiony Rossii. Sotsial'no-ekonomicheskie pokazateli. 2025: Statisticheskiy sbornik [Regions of Russia. Socio-economic indicators. 2025: Stat. collection].

8. Stryabkova, E. A., Kulik, A. M., Gerasimova, N. A., & Tebekin, M. V. (2022). Assessment of the Conditions of Spatial Heterogeneity of the Distribution of Human Capital in the Region, Taking into Account Digital Transformation. Research Result. Economic Research, 8(3), 69–84. https://doi.org/10.18413/2409-1634-2022-8-3-0-6

9. Fedorova, L. P., & Remnev, P. Yu. (2023). Methodological Tools for Assessing the Development of Digital Transformation Infrastructure as a Factor in the Safe Development of the Region. Vestnik of the Russian University of Cooperation, 4, 80–86. https://elibrary.ru/jypyqy

10. Tsyao, P. (2024). The Impact of Information Business Systems on Regional Economic Growth in the Context of Digital Transformation. Original'nye issledovaniya, 14(12), 302–307. https://elibrary.ru/fcdeps

11. Agafonova, S. V., Bryukhova, N. G., Kaigorodov, B. V., & Kuznetsova, Yu. V. (2022). Digital Transformation of Education for Sustainability of the Caspian Region. Galactica Media: Journal of Media Studies, 4(3), 208–222. https://doi.org/10.46539/gmd.v4i3.321

12. Akhunov, R. R., Akhunova, L. R., Marichev, S. G., & Nizamutdinov, R. I. (2021). Russian Oil and Gas Regions During the COVID-19 Crisis and Their Digital Transformation. R-Economy, 7(3), 179–191. https://doi.org/10.15826/recon.2021.7.3.016

13. Bakharev, V. V., Mityashin, G. Yu., Stelmashonok, E. V. et al. (2023). Trends of Evolution of Food Security: Digital Transformation, Social Entrepreneurship and Human Dignity. Siberian Journal of Life Sciences and Agriculture, 15(2), 363–391. https://doi.org/10.12731/2658-6649-2023-15-2-363-391

14. Baryshev, R. A., Tsvetochkina, I. A., Babina, O. I. et al. (2020). Transformation of University Libraries during the Digital Era. Journal of Siberian Federal University. Humanities and Social Sciences, 13(7), 1073–1089. https://doi.org/10.17516/1997-1370-0627

15. Khalepo, O. A., & Omarova, N. Yu. (2024). A Model of Training Qualified Personnel for the Regional Economy in the Context of Digital Transformation. Beneficium, 1, 117–125. https://doi.org/10.34680/BENEFICIUM.2024.1(50).117-125

16. Khotich, Yu., Cha, A., & Zakharov, A. K. (2020). Digital Transformation in Russian Business (pp. 235–244). In: Novaya paradigma razvitiya menedzhmenta: gipotezy, koncepcii, praktiki, t. 1 [New Paradigm of Management Development: Hypotheses, Concepts, Practices, vol. 1]. Rusains LLC Publ. https://elibrary.ru/huvifh

17. Korovin, G. B. (2020). Architecture of the Agent-Based Model for the Region's Industrial Complex Digital Transformation. Journal of New Economy, 21(3), 158–174. https://doi.org/10.29141/2658-5081-2020-21-3-8

18. Lepore, D., & Coacci, F. (2020). Intermediaries Boosting the Digital Transformation of SMES: A Comparative Analysis between Italy and the Russian Federation. State and Municipal Management. Scholar Notes, 4, 178–184. https://doi.org/10.22394/2079-1690-2020-1-4-178-184

19. Mayakova, A. (2019). Digital Transformation of Modern Quality Management. Economic Annals-XXI, 11-12, 138–145. https://doi.org/10.21003/ea.V180-15

20. Narkevich, L. (2022). Digital Transformation of the Information-Analytical System for Crisis Management in Enterprise Rehabilitation Procedures. Sustainable Development and Engineering Economics, 1, 8–26. https://doi.org/10.48554/SDEE.2022.1.1

21. Pilyak, S. A. (2021). Analysis of the Transformation of the Interpretation of Cultural Heritage under the Influence of Digital Technologies. Psikhologiya cheloveka i obshchestva, 3, 27–36. https://elibrary.ru/flscxp

22. Polyakova, T. A., Naumov, V. B., & Minbaleev, A. V. (2022). Trust in the Law During the Digital Transformation. State and Law, 11, 139–147. https://doi.org/10.31857/S102694520022767-4

23. Yershov, V. N., Yershov, N. V., Kozlov, O. A., & Mikhailov, Yu. F. (2020). On the Issue of Assessing the Quality of Teaching in Higher Education in the Context of Digital Transformation of Education. The Science of Person: Humanitarian Researches, 14(4), 76–81. https://doi.org/10.17238/issn1998-5320.2020.14.4.9